2009 Apr-Jun, Daily Insights
Archives of Daily Insights
2009 April-June
(Also include some significant dates in March)
6/30/09 Tuesday
It looks like the stock market prefers to wander around some more to close out the month of June. Amid mixed news, the Dow gives back nearly all the gains made yesterday by dropping 82 points, while the Nasdaq dips 8 points and the S&P down by 9. There is no clear direction in market movement because the trading volumes are light. Furthermore, the major indexes just oscillate back and forth while keeping the levels they have attained.
I wish to comment on two significant happenings today. The first one regards the withdrawal of all US troops from Iraqi cities to the countryside. This is the first step of the winding down of American military campaign in Iraq that began in 2003. This is a war of choice (not necessity as claimed) made by the Bush Administration with disastrous results. The only consolation is that Saddam Hussein was removed from power.
We should ask the American people whether it is worth the price of 3000 dead and many more wounded, and a trillion dollars spent. There are still dozens of dictators around the world. Can the US afford to get rid of them? We should also ask the Iraqi people if they are better off now than before the US invasion.
The US has committed yet another major foreign disaster after Vietnam. Belatedly, the pullout will enable the US to focus on the war against Al Qaeda in the border regions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. For those who worry about US deficit spending, winding down in Iraq will save hundreds of billions of dollars.
The other news regards the US auto industry. Ford Motor announces that it will increase next quarter’s production by 5.4%. The news boosts its stock price by 29 cents to $6.07 in heavy trading today. Although one day’s movement does not mean much, we have to consider the following:
• Ford had a brush with death but survived while its two American competitors, GM and Chrysler, went bust.
• Although hard to compete with Japanese and German automakers, Ford has succeeded in grabbing some market shares from its American dead rivals.
• Ford is trying to re-invent itself as a major manufacturer of fuel-efficient vehicles.
• The remaking of a big company, if successful, always brings a dramatic rise in the stock price many times its record low. Ford hit a record low of $1 early this year.
6/29/09 Monday
There is no big news today to excite the market. The trading volume is light. The Dow advances by 92 points, while the Nasdaq moves up by 6 and the S&P by 8 points.
The sentencing of Madoff to 150 years of prison for the largest investment scam totaling $171 billion is big news indeed. What is big is not the sentencing but the many questions remaining unanswered:
How can a scam this big lasting for over 20 years has escaped government attention until now? In Congressional hearings, some whistle blowers revealed that they wrote to the US Security Exchange Commission (SEC), only to be ignored. What was the SEC doing? Are there any high government officials involved?
How could one Madoff manage to swindle so much from so many people? Who were the other Madoff accomplices? Who were his top assistants who helped him plan and execute the scam?
What has happened to the $171 billion swindled money? Some of course went to Madoff’s mansions, yachts, airplanes and antique collections that can be seized easily. The big slice is the cash that he must have hidden in some earthly paradise overseas. Does the government have the guts and brains to find the cash?
If you are not a victim, you may think that this maximum prison sentence returns justice. Not at all, not even if he is executed. Justice can only be rendered if the swindled money is recovered so that the victims will be compensated.
The bigger damage is the lost public confidence in the investment industry. Do you want to let other people play with your money and promise you a return many times more than your regular bank deposit? You’d better think three times. Do you trust the law to protect you? You should not. You should trust your own smarts.
I can guarantee you that this scam, although the biggest in history, will not be the last. There is no effective deterrent for money making by evil means. If there is, all the murderers, rapists, swindlers and thieves will have disappeared from the streets. You don’t know who they are until a crime has been committed and the perpetrator is caught. So be on the look out for yourself. It will do you a lot of good.
6/26/2009 Friday
The major indexes resume their regular pattern of relatively small movements (Dow -38, Nasdaq +9, S$P -1). The difference this time is a substantial increase in trading volumes, almost twice as much as that of yesterday.
How do we interpret this thing? A volume Increase means more or bigger transactions, and more money changing hands. Something is going on although we do not know what. Let’s try some detective work as follows:
The rally of yesterday may have stimulated more public participation. This is unlikely according to past experience because the public has inertia. It takes a few days of rallies or sell off to stimulate the general public to act. Furthermore, the public is still ambivalent about the current worldwide recession. With all the conflicting news, it is hard to conclude if the recession is getting better or worse. As a consequence, most people prefer to sit on the fence and watch.
If it is not wider public participation, what caused the bigger volumes of today? There were no expirations of options, which already occurred last week with little fanfare. It must be the big players who have tons of cash to buy and tons of stocks to sell. Why? You should ask them if you know who they are. What I think is that they are repositioning themselves for something ahead. What? You should ask them again because they are the ones who organize what is going to happen, never the small guys who only react.
Something happening ahead can be either up or down. If the big guys are looking farther, the market is likely to go up because we are not far from the bottom right now. If they look to short-term profit taking due to the significant run up since March, we are in for a temporary downturn. I would say the former is more likely. However, both can happen, that is, a temporary downturn followed by a sustained upturn.
Another factor you should be thinking about is rotation. The big guys rotate their share holdings every now and then to position themselves for maximum profits as the situation changes. Can you think of the industries subject to rotation at this time? Here’s my thought:
Rotating out: drugs, health care, retails, travel, non-basic consumer goods.
Rotating into: raw materials, oil, banks, high tech, transport, new industries.
6/25/09 Thursday
Yesterday I was wondering what kind of news the market was waiting for to make a big move. Well, the big move comes today (Dow +173, Nasdaq +37, S&P +19). Note that although the advances are big, the volumes of transaction are only moderate.
What are the big news then? They are no bigger than yesterday’s. As always, good ones and bad make the news everyday. You may pick the good ones to justify today’s market rally. But that does not mean you’ve got the true reason because you only associate the good news with the rally, not cause and effect.
Let me advance a simple explanation without bringing in the news except the profit motive only. Since the two profit-taking days on 6/15 and 6/16 when it dropped 187 and 108 points respectively, the Dow has paused for a week with no clear direction. It tried to break the low of 8212 set in May by dropping another 201 points on 6/22. However, it snaps back today to 8472.
This implies three things: First, the Dow may not look back past last month’s low. Second, the Dow cannot pause for too long. It has to move forward because somebody has to make some money. Third, if it moves forward, it has to pass the high of 8799 set in June so that another cycle of profit taking can repeat. Let’s see what kind of news will take us from here to a higher plane.
My conjecture must involves the following caveats:
• A major bank failure (unlikely)
• Terrorist attack on a major oil refinery or city (hope not)
• China and Japan severely limit their purchases of US Treasury bonds (How dare they do that without jeopardizing their own exports to the US)
• North Korean missile attack (Maybe in the movies. The Chinese will never allow their puppet to disrupt their lucrative trade with the US, Japan and South Korea)
• Iran’s nuclear threat (Israel will take care of it because their own survival is at stake, not the US or Europe’s. But it would disrupt the flow of oil, and that would be very bad for the stock market).
6/24/09 Wednesday
Another light trading day unfolds where the Dow again drops 23 points. In contrast, the Nasdaq rises by 27 points and the S&P by 6. The market has been pausing for several days now without a clear direction. What kind of news is it waiting for?
In fact, the market will make a big move when some big guys are ready to buy or sell. The reason is that making money is most important, and it takes a leader to make the first move. All kinds of news come out everyday. The big guys may choose to respond to any one piece of news, or none at all. Once the market moves, the analysts and the reporters will take it from there, and interpret the market rationale based on what they see, rightly or wrongly.
Today’s significant rise in the Nasdaq is stimulated by the news from Oracle (ORCL) whose quarterly profit beat analysts’ estimate by 2 cents. Although sales fell by 5% and license revenues dropped by 13%, the stock jumped by $1.4 to $21.3 in heavy trading. Beating or missing analysts’ estimates drives the stock most of the time.
Is the analyst’s estimate that important? Is it more real than sales, profits, and all the rest? It’s only important and real when the stock price moves accordingly. Otherwise, the estimate will be silently ignored. This leads me into thinking that analysts’ estimates or reports serve a special purpose. I don’t have the time to discuss what kind of purpose.
I just want to pose a few questions. Are the analysts self-employed? If not, who employ them? Do they have an obligation toward their employers? The fact is: most analysts work in major retail banks, investment banks, mutual funds, and brokerage companies. Are these companies big players who lead and control the stock market? You bet! Bear in mind that people work for the sources of their paychecks. Are you able to deduce the analysts’ purpose now?
6/23/09 Tuesday
The market takes a breather today in light trading (Dow -16, Nasdaq -1, S&P +2). There is no major news to stimulate trading in either direction.
The indexes are closing in near the low points in May. Let’s keep watch to see if they break the low points, although I doubt it given that all the recent positive signs outweigh the negatives:
Index—March low—-Apr low—-May low—-Today (6/23)
Dow——6547———–7761——-8212———8323
Nasdaq—1269———-1551——–1680———1765
S&P——-676————811———877———–895
Let’s also keep watching the Dow at the current oscillation cycle lasting for almost one month now:
Current cycle to unfold,
Date—5/27(Wed)—6/11(Thu)—–6/23(Tue)——
Dow—-8300———–8771———— 8323————
There are three scenarios. First, if the Dow turns around and breaks the high of 8771 set on 6/11, we will be moving onto the next phase of oscillation on a higher plane. This signifies market confidence about the immediate future.
Second, if the Dow breaks 8300 and continues downward, all the worries about the current economic situation are still waiting to be flushed out.
Third, the Dow may continue to oscillate within the present range for some more, as it has done so for three cycles already since the beginning of May. This signifies stabilization, but waiting for stimulating news to fuel it forward.
Coming releases of significant news:
• ISM index for June by the Institute for Supply Management.
• ASA staffing index, weekly with monthly overviews, by the American Staffing Association.
• Home sales and inventories for June by the National Association of Realtors.
The above data are relevant as well as up to date in depicting the direction of the economy. They tell you about manufacturing orders, temporary employment, and real estate sales respectively. However, the stock market may choose to ignore them and respond to some other news or anticipations.
6/22/09 Monday
It looks like a slaughter today as the Dow drops 201 points, the Nasdaq -61, and the S&P -28. It is a broad sell off with the consolation that the volume is not heavy but moderate.
The major news that leads to the declines is the downward revision of a forecast by the World Bank showing that the global output is expected to contract by 2.9% in March instead of 1.7% stated earlier. The stock market is always sensitive to “expected” news rather than “real” news. When the real results later turn out to be better than expected, it will give the market a good reason to rise again. In fact, this news is not new. Everybody knows that we are in a global recession. That’s why stock prices have touched the bottoms. It’s how bad the situation is perceived to be that actually drives the market.
Let me give you some perspectives again. Here are the index levels:
Index—March low—-Apr low—-May low—-Today (6/22)
Dow——6547———–7761——-8212———8339
Nasdaq—1269———-1551——–1680———1766
S&P——-676————811———877———–893
Today’s indexes are close to breaking the low levels set in May. However, they are a long way from the April low, and a far cry from the March 12-year low.
Let me also give you the last few oscillation cycles where profit taking was taking place:
First cycle lasting for 2 weeks,
Date—5/1(Fri)——5/4(Mon)———-5/15(Fri)
Dow—-8212 ——-–8427—————–8269
Second cycle lasting for 4 days,
Date—5/15(Fri)—–5/18(Mon)—––5/21(Thu)
Dow—-8269———8504———–—-8202
Third cycle lasting for 3 days,
Date—5/21(Thu)-—5/26(Tue)——–5/27(Wed)
Dow—-8202—–—-–8473-————8300
Current cycle to unfold,
Date—5/27(Wed)—6/11(Thu)—–6/22(Mon)——
Dow—-8300———–8771———— 8339————-
The current cycle of profit taking has already lasted for almost a month, much longer than the previous cycles. In addition, the range is also bigger, more than 400 points between high and low. Why? I think the reasons are twofold. First, there is more participation in the stock market than before. Second, more people playing means less volatility compared to previous months.
6/19/09 Friday
Despite the so-called quadruple witching as various options expire, the market moves with little fanfare. At the close, the Dow lost 16 points, while both the Nasdaq and S&P gained 20 and 3 points respectively.
Last week, I talked about the health care crisis in the US. I wish to follow up with what are now being drafted in the legislation for reform.
The whole complicated problem can be summarized in just two words, runaway inflation. Without bringing the costs down, health care reform cannot succeed.
The rising costs have already priced out about 57 million people who go without medical insurance. Within a decade, this health care inflation will break the budget of the US government because of the ballooning expenditures of Medicare (for seniors) and Medicaid (federal assistance to local government programs). In recent years, US corporations are also feeling the pains of paying for the rising health care benefits of their employees. This is viewed as a big issue about cost competitiveness for American products worldwide.
The following examines the various ideas to be incorporated into the legislation:
1. Single payer system. It is clear that the present system driven by profit motive does not work. What if the government takes over? This has worked in most developed countries, albeit not perfectly. The big hurdle is public opposition because most Americans believe, rightly or wrongly, that only private enterprise can provide good quality and choice. However, they don’t see that there is no competition in health care, resulting in runaway inflation. The idea of a government takeover will energize the opposition, thereby jeopardizing the chances for passing the reform bill.
2. Government insurance. The government establishes its own health care insurance to compete with private ones, thereby lowering the costs, and offering the public more choices. The government has acquired plenty of experience in running its own big health care programs for federal employees, soldiers and veterans.
3. Free flow of information. All health care providers are required to publish their prices and services on the Internet so that consumers can compare and choose the best low price.
4. Reduce wastes. Health care in the US costs trillions of dollars a year. Making the system more efficient will reduce billion dollars of wastes. A major effort to digitalize all medical records and store them in a secure database is already taking place.
5. Universal coverage. The government insures or subsidizes all the uninsured to create the biggest market under universal coverage. In the insurance business, a bigger market tends to reduce costs.
6. Limits on insurers. Insurance companies are not allowed to pick and choose the healthiest customers to maximize profits.
7. Limits on lawsuits. A reasonable limit is set on compensation for health damages unintentionally caused by doctors, hospitals or drug companies. The goal is to inject some certainties into the operations of the health care business with a view to reduce costs.
8. Limits on drug companies. Current preferences granted to drug companies are reviewed with a view to bring down drug costs to the public.
9. Appeal to providers’ conscience. Doctors and hospitals are encouraged to support the reform. They are reminded of the call of their noble profession to serve the public, rather than profit maximization.
10. Public education. The public is reminded of their personal responsibilities to live a healthy life, and not to abuse or overuse the medical system.
11. Basic safety net. The government enforces a basic safety net for all citizens. To keep the costs down, only catastrophic insurance like cancer or incapacity is provided to those who cannot afford medical insurance. Those who can afford will buy any kind of additional insurance they wish from private insurers.
12. Grand compromise. Health care reform in America is the most difficult undertaking because of the status quo. Anybody can find a good reason to reject reform. The general public is concerned about too much government intervention. The drug companies, doctors, hospitals, and other health care providers worry about reduced profit margin. The insurance companies fear that the government will drive them out of business. The trial lawyers do not want a limit on how much they can sue for medical mistakes. Many presidents have failed to pass reforms before. It is up to the Obama Administration to strike a grand compromise with all major interest groups. Despite all the hurdles, the chance for a limited success is much better now because most people know that the current system is not sustainable.
Let’s get back to the stock market. Health care reform has created enough uncertainties regarding the profit margins of the drug companies, insurance companies, and hospitals. Consequently, their stock prices are subject to continued pressure until the reform bill is either passed or dead with clear results about their profit potentials.
6/18/09 Thursday
The market pauses for a second day in light trading with the Dow up by 58 points, Nasdaq -0.3, and S&P +8. We’ll just have to see if this pause will give rise to a higher run.
More good news come out today. The index of economic indicators rises to 100.2 in May as compared with 99 in April and the lowest level at 98 in March. The significance is that the index has risen for the second month in a row. Besides, unemployment also slows down sharply, although job growth is unlikely until some time next year.
You may ask why good news do not lead to a big upsurge. Well, the stock market is more complicated than that. You can be sure that all the good news will add up to cause a big surge eventually. But we are not at the threshold yet. Why? I figure that the big guys have not yet accumulated enough stocks near the bottom. When that happens, we’ll see a big party to attract the small guys, who are now sitting on the fence, wondering when will the recovery begin.
In the meantime, the daily ups and downs are governed by short-term profit taking. The total amounts of “put” and “call” options placed in the brokerage houses are a big factor when the date of expiration draws near. About once a quarter, the expiration dates of some kinds of options coincide. This will cause a lot of volatility in the market. That’s why they call it a witching day. Tomorrow is quadruple witching because four kinds of options will expire.
For those who play options, I wonder if you have ever thought of the following questions:
• Who designed this system? For your benefit or for theirs? If for yours, why?
• Why do you want to limit your sell or buy to an expiration date? I personally don’t.
• When you place your options order with the brokerage firm, it’s equivalent to showing all your cards to your opponent in a game. Is it a good idea?
• Who do you think will deal with the options you placed? The brokerage firms, some invisible big hands, or a conspiring bunch? Do you think they want to fulfill your wishes? If so, why
6/17/09 Wednesday
The three major indexes pause for today after two days of decline: Dow -7 points, Nasdaq +12, and S&P -1. The positive gain in the Nasdaq reflects the turnaround of many high tech companies.
Banks are under pressure after many of them are downgraded by the Standard & Poor Company (S&P). Talking about downgrades or upgrades that often occur in the stock market, have you ever thought about the effects and purposes of a risk opinion provided by a reputable rating company like S&P or Moody’s? Who own those companies? Do they also buy and sell stocks?
The fact is: First, their opinion is very effective because the public believes it and acts accordingly. Second, they are not government agencies but companies that operate on profit motives. As such, their ratings have to be viewed in the right perspectives rather than being taken literally without question.
The rating companies have been criticized by some reporters as an accomplice in the financial meltdown last year. It is alleged that they cooperated with the banks and other financial institutions to bundle the risky sub-prime loans with the good ones and gave them AAA ratings. With the high rating, the financial institutions could resell the bundled loans to other investors, including the American public, foreigners, overseas banks and governments. The rating companies have not answered directly with a rebuttal. I guess the more you talk about it, the more people will question. It is better to keep it under wraps for heaven’s sake. That is why transparency is so important in maintaining healthy operation of the capitalist system.
6/16/09 Tuesday
The market continues to decline for the second day in moderate trading as follows:
Dow: 8505, -107 points
Nasdaq: 1796, -20 points
S&P: 912, -12 points
To give you some perspectives, here are the index levels:
Index—March low—-Apr low—-May low—-Today (6/16)
Dow——6547———-7761——–8212———8505
Nasdaq—1269———-1551——–1680———1796
S&P——–676———–811———877———–912
Do you see the trend? It’s clearly an up trend despite all the oscillations. In case you worry, the next thing to look for is whether the indexes will come down to break the May low levels. If they do, then we’ll begin to worry if the current fragile recovery can sustain. My opinion is that the indexes will never look back while continue to dance on, after weighing all the good and bad news regarding the economy.
One big worry that has received less attention is the auction of US treasury bonds. The US government borrows money by regularly auctioning treasury bonds of various maturity dates. Who are the big buyers? They are: China, Japan, Russia, Brazil and the oil exporting countries. Recently, China caused a stir by reducing regular purchases totaling $4.4 billion for April. China currently holds about $800 billion worth of US treasury bonds. The scary thing is that if foreign governments don’t buy, the US government will run out of money, with all kinds of implications.
We may speculate on various reasons for China’s action. One interesting conjecture is that they need the money to invest in the stock market! If true, that may give us a reason to expect the up trend to continue. But there are speculations about negative effects too, which I don’t have the time to discuss right now.
6/15/09 Monday
Today, the Dow drops 187 points, the Nasdaq by 42, and the S&P by 22. Those are by no means small numbers. Is the sky falling again? I only start to worry if this continues for a few more days.
Fear not! As I said before, the stock market is like a dance of the Waltz or Tango. There are backward and forward steps interspersed by pauses. If you look back the past few days or even weeks, the magnitudes of the forward steps add up more than those of the backward steps. So the trend is on the way up. The economy is weak for sure, especially the job market, but the healing process has already begun. You have to see the trend. Don’t get too excited by some days of big ups or downs.
Other significant developments also support the up trend:
• This down day trading volume is only moderate to light.
• The sell off takes place for no long-term reason except profit taking, especially in the materials sector.
• The materials stocks such as oil, steel, aluminum, paper, etc. have risen significantly. Why? In anticipation of further economic recovery which will require more materials output.
• Ten of the 19 major US banks are returning a total of $60 billion bailout money to the government.
• Three major indicators will be out tomorrow: housing starts, industrial production, and production price index. Do you think some insiders already get a peek at them? You may not want to believe it. I do but I have no proof. When there is money to be made, people will do all kinds of creative things to circumvent the law. My experience tells me that stock prices fall before imminent good news, and vice versa. So let’s see what tomorrow will bring.
6/12/09 Friday
The market receives no big news today, resulting in light trading and little change for the three indexes (Dow +28 points, Nasdaq -4, S&P +1).
However, something big is going on, which is health care reform in the US. The legislation is now being drafted in the US Congress, followed by a few months of debates, with the hope of eventual passage by the end of this year.
Previous presidents have attempted health care reform with little success. This time we may have a good shot at it. The reasons are two fold. First, the costs of health care have ballooned out of control, causing a lot of pain to the average citizen. Second, big companies also feel the pain of paying for the high cost of health care benefits provided to their employees. When big business complains, legislators listen.
President Obama has underlined the urgency of reform. Above all, what is more important than good health for our workers? If we fail to contain this health care inflation, it will have an adverse impact on American competitiveness around the world. American products will not be able to compete due to the high costs in health care.
What causes the health care inflation in the US? This complex situation is summarized as follows:
1. Health care is not like cell phones, PCs or autos where perfect competition reduces the price. A hospital can charge exorbitant prices and get away with it. So can a drug company for a new drug, or a specialist performing a surgery.
2. There is lack of information about prices and quality of health care. As a consequence, consumers cannot make comparisons and choose the best low price.
3. Health care is subject to scare tactics by the providers, such as “If you don’t do this test or procedure or this drug, something real bad will happen.”
4. Insurance companies have become an annoying middleman between doctors and patients. They have destroyed the traditional relationship between supplier and consumer. Instead of direct negotiating between themselves for the best course of action and the best price, the doctor wants to charge the highest price the insurer is willing to pay. On the other hand, the patient wants to get the most medical services out of the fixed monthly premiums paid to the insurer. What does the insurer do? He will simply enforce a price where he can make the most profit without regard to either the patient or the doctor. In the end, both the patient and the doctor lose.
5. Trial lawyers have also intruded into health care. They look for mistakes made by doctors or drug companies, and their adverse effects on the patients. They will help the patients sue the providers for an exorbitant amount of money. While saying they are helping the victims, they in fact take the biggest slice of compensation upon winning the case. This has caused doctors to be very defensive. To protect themselves against lawsuits, doctors tend to order more laboratory tests for patients than actually required.
6. Most Americans believe that the free market can solve all problems. This is true provided that there exist perfect competition, free flow of information, and so on. In health care, none of the ingredients of a free market exists except profit maximization by the providers, insurers, and lawyers.
7. Many legislators kowtow to the health care providers because they are rich and powerful, especially the Republican Party. As a result, there is insufficient government supervision of the health care industry. The Republican legislation to provide drug benefits to seniors is a prime example of government kowtow to the drug companies. Who actually benefited from this legislation? The drug companies of course, as evidenced by their rising stock prices after the legislation was passed a few years ago.
6/11/09 Thursday
Yesterday, I mentioned that a surge might take place that would last for a day or two. Let’s see if it works out. Today, the Dow surges by more than 100 points before midday but only for a brief time, then it settles at the close to a 32-point gain. The Nasdaq is up by 9 points, and the S&P by 6. This is triggered by lower unemployment claims and better retail sales reported.
May I update my observations about the recent oscillation cycles:
First cycle lasting for 2 weeks,
Date—5/1(Fri)–—5/4(Mon)———-5/15(Fri)
Dow—-8212 ——–8427—————–8269
Second cycle lasting for 4 days,
Date—5/15(Fri)—–5/18(Mon)—–5/21(Thu)
Dow—-8269———8504———–—-8202
Third cycle lasting for 3 days,
Date—5/21(Thu)-—5/26(Tue)——–5/27 (Wed)
Dow—-8202—–—-–8473-————8300
Current cycle to unfold,
Date—5/27(Wed)—5/28(Thu)—–6/4 (Thu)—-6/11(Thu)—–
Dow—-8300—–—–8404————-8750———-8771———-
Note that the current cycle breaks a level (8771) higher than any of those reached in the previous cycles. The Dow has paused near this level for five days now. If it does not fall below 8200 as in the previous cycles, it will not look back anymore. It will continue to go up further, and oscillate on a higher plane in a similar pattern just described.
6/10/09 Wednesday
The market continues to take a fourth day of pause in moderate trading. The major indexes register little downward movement (Dow -24 points, Nasdaq -7, and S&P -3).
An upward surge can take place for just one or two days only. It has happened many times before in a recessionary situation like this. The surge will be triggered by some positive news that can cause people to forget for a moment their persistent worries. What are those worries?
First, how deep and how long will the current recession be?
Second, my neighbor has lost his job. Will it be my turn soon?
Third, how can the government manage its huge deficits?
Fourth, the price of oil has risen from $32 per barrel in March to $71 in June this year. When will it hit $140 like last summer?
Fifth, what the hell is North Korea doing? What about Iran too?
Let me venture to answer to those worries:
First, we are on track to economic recovery. If you don’t believe me, look at the stock prices. They have mostly recovered well past their March record lows. Stock prices are the most accurate predictor of things to come because people are most serious about money.
Second, the employment situation will get worse before it gets better. It is the last thing to improve in an economic recovery.
Third, when the economy recovers, incomes, consumption and sales will rise. This will increase the flow of tax revenues to the government. Do you remember the US government was running huge surpluses during the Internet boom of 1990’s?
Fourth, the $140 oil price per barrel is a reality. This time is different because a big movement has already been created for alternative energy. High oil prices sure cause a lot of pains. But therein lies the solution, which forces people to reduce consumption and find other alternatives. We may have to put up for high oil prices for a while.
Fifth, over-reacting to North Korea and Iran will not do any good. North Korea is a small country that cannot even feed its own people. It produces nothing except weapons, nuclear bombs and missiles. North Korea can only exist with massive Chinese economic assistance. The Chinese will never allow its puppet North Korea to provoke a war because it would mess up its profitable trade with South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. However, the Chinese don’t want to discourage North Korea from pinching the nerves of the US and Japan. Therefore, a nuclear North Korea is a problem for its neighbors such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Russia. The US should just watch but not get too excited. North Korea only wants some world attention, especially from the US. The US should be dead serious with suicide terrorists like those in the 9/11 attacks, not a small rogue state far away.
As for Iran, the situation is different because the Middle East has oil. The US can only blame itself for its failures in Iraq that only strengthens Iran’s position. Unlike North Korea, Iran is a big resourceful country that deserves to be recognized rather than treated as an outcast for so many years. What Iran is doing now is to fight for this recognition. A sizeable segment of the Iranian population is not anti-West or anti-US. Millions of Iranians have received education in the US and Europe. A nuclear Iran is a problem for its neighbors especially Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US should open a dialogue with Iran to lower tensions rather than continuing its belligerent policy that has not worked for so long.
6/9/09 Tuesday
The stock market pauses for a third day with little change at the close except the Nasdaq index rising by 18 points. This is triggered by better-than-expected earnings reported by Texas Instruments.
As I said in my recent video presentations on Youtube, the current economic recovery must be led by three sectors: the financial firms, the materials industry and the high tech industry.
The banks are on their way to stabilization. The government says that 10 major banks will return their bailout money back to the government, which total $60 billion. It is a positive sign for this to happen in just a few months.
The materials industry has been showing signs of revival as seen by the doubling of oil prices in about three months, and the rising prices of company stocks like International Paper, Goodyear Tires & Rubber, and Alcoa.
The high tech industry also leads the way because it is very sensitive to any economic development, good or bad. A pick up in high tech stocks represents a harbinger of good things to come.
Although things are looking better than early this year, we are not out of the woods yet. A major bank may fail. Business and private foreclosures are still high. Credit card defaults are rising due to job loss. Unemployment has increased to 9.4% nationally. The jobless rate will be the last to improve until some time next year.
But remember, stock prices always lead by several months. When a full-blown economic recovery shows, stock prices will have already reached a high point or may I say, unsafe territory.
6/8/09 Monday
Stocks are weighted down the whole day until a rally during the last hour that leaves the major indexes little changed. At midday, the Dow was down close to 200 points for a very brief period.
This kind of phenomenon happens often during a time like this. Most analysts describe it as a bear market rally. That is, people take profits when prices are just a little higher. The reason is the worry about the severity and length of the current recession.
Why does the big rise or fall usually occur near the beginning or end of the trading day? After viewing my previous publications, you should have agreed that the market is heavily influenced by big players all along. Since big players have tons of cash to buy and tons of stocks to sell, it makes perfect sense for them to push up the price when they intend to sell, and depress the price when they intend to buy.
I can reason that even during a cash out, they buy as well as sell the same stock at the same time, provided the total selling exceeds the total buying for the day with a net cash profit. The whole cash out process may take a week or more to prevent the price from collapsing. They may do a partial cash out instead of a total one.
As a small player, you may have difficulty understanding this. Just imagine you have $20 million cash and 5 million shares of XYZ company whose average daily turnover is a relatively small 4 million shares. You cannot simply get out in just one day for a profit. You have to prop up the price and cash out gradually.
Now, propping up the price represents a cost. How can you minimize the cost? Do it at the beginning of the trading day when most people are not yet ready. Thus a smaller buy will yield a higher price increase. The same result applies to the end of the trading day when most people are prepared to leave.
So much for the cash out process. What about share accumulation? The same reasoning applies, just the reverse action.
6/5/09 Friday
The major indexes do not move much today. The unemployment rate is still climbing but the job loss is much less than previously.
Yesterday marked the 20th anniversary of the June 4 Incident in China. Twenty years must seem a long time but this period represents the most dramatic development for both China and the world.
After the death of Chairman Mao in 1976, a power struggle ensued and Deng Xiao Ping became the paramount leader a few years later. Deng was known for his wit, pragmatism, and courage, as well as his diminutive stature. He immediately embarked on the almost impossible task of turning China from a communist country to a capitalistic one. Gorbachev of the Soviet Union had tried but failed.
There was strong opposition from the hardliners of the Communist Party. To those who wanted to be pure communist, Deng replied, “It does not matter if a cat is white or black as long as it catches mice”. To those who were obsessed by the communist doctrine of economic equality for all, Deng said, “Somebody has to get rich first in order for the masses to be rich”.
To the whole nation, Deng used the slogan “Socialism with Chinese characteristics” to engineer a change in attitude. This vague but clever slogan enabled him to make a 180-degree turn with the full backing of the whole population. Deng knew that making money is in the Chinese blood despite having been suppressed by the communist regime since 1949. The Chinese were long engaged in world commerce well before the Europeans learned to colonize other peoples. So this set the stage for future economic boom.
By 1989, China was more open and liberalized than before, but the Communist Party still maintained absolute power. The college students in Beijing petitioned the government to crack down on rampant corruption in a display of patriotism. The Communist Party viewed this as a criticism threatening their rule and authority. The absence of dialogue between student leaders and top officials eventually led to demonstrations in the streets, joined by workers and other segments of the population. The demonstrators occupied Tiananmen Square for several weeks. The theme of protest had taken an ominous turn from eliminating corruption to building democracy.
Sensing that the situation was getting out of hand, Deng sent the army into the streets to clear the demonstrations. Hundreds of people were reported killed. Although the demonstration was suppressed, Deng had lost his good reputation, and the Communist Party had lost its legitimacy. The whole population saw the simple contradiction that the People’s Liberation Army, first formed during the Communist Revolution, was sent in to suppress and kill their own fellow citizens rather than liberating and protecting them from tyranny.
But life went on. The Chinese economy entered a stage of high growth for almost 20 years. The Communist Party now is still holding onto absolute power. The current status can be described as follows:
• In China, anything goes. Everybody loves money.
• China is already a capitalist country, only communist in name.
• The only thing you cannot do is to openly criticize the Government or the Party.
• Having lost its legitimacy after the 1989 June 4 Incident, the Communist Party’s only hope for continued power is to maintain high economic growth in exchange for silent tolerance by the people.
• The size of the middle class has grown from zero under communism to an estimated 500 million, which is bigger than the entire population of the US or the European Union.
• China has become a gigantic factory of countless products sold all over the world.
• Multinational corporations are competing for a slice of the expanding Chinese market.
What holds for the future of the communist regime? Some experts think that an economic recession will cause a collapse of government. Well, it does not happen during the current worldwide recession when millions of factory workers lose their jobs and are forced to return to the countryside. Maybe the Chinese people are waiting patiently for another round of economic boom.
As for the Communist Party, they have made a complete turnaround by throwing all communist doctrines out the window except its revolutionary name. However, they are not prepared to relinquish more authority and power to the people. They will have to as the middle class grows bigger, because there is no other choice.
6/4/09 Thursday
Today’s rise in the major indexes (Dow +75, Nasdaq +24. S&P +11) represents an upward trend during the last six days except one interruption yesterday.
Let me recapture what I said last week about the previous oscillation cycles:
First cycle lasting for 2 weeks,
Date—5/1(Fri)–—5/4(Mon)———-5/15(Fri)
Dow—-8212 ——-–8427—————–8269
Second cycle lasting for 4 days,
Date—5/15(Fri)—–5/18(Mon)——–5/21(Thu)
Dow—-8269——-—8504——-—-—-8202
Third cycle lasting for 3 days,
Date—5/21(Thu)-—5/26(Tue)——–5/27 (Wed)
Dow—-8202—–—-–8473————–8300
Current cycle to unfold,
Date—5/27(Wed)—5/28(Thu)——–6/4 (Thu)——
Dow—-8300—–—–8404——–——-8750———
Note that the current cycle breaks a level (8750) higher than any of those reached in the previous cycles. Granted that it may come down tomorrow or the day after, if the Dow does not fall below 8200 like in the previous cycles, it will not look back any more. It will continue to go up further, and oscillate on a higher plane in a similar pattern just described.
6/3/09 Wednesday
After four days of continuous rise, the market takes a break as expected. All the major indexes are down (Dow -66, Nasdaq -11, S&P -13). A pickup appears during the last half hour before closing, which may set the tone for tomorrow’s opening hour. Note that at midday, the Dow was down as much as 140 points.
As always, all kinds of news are flying around to explain what has happened for the day. When the market goes up, people will look for the good news and ignore the bad ones. And vice versa. No matter how we want to interpret the situation, the profit motives and business fundamentals are driving the market all along.
One of the fundamentals is the prospect of inflation (rising prices). Since the mid 1980s, inflation has not been a problem to cause dislocations in the economy. What are the forces that keep inflation in check? Basically, higher productivity, better distribution of goods and services, higher mobility of labor, and easier flow of information. All these will contribute to a more competitive business environment that will keep prices in check. Which industry greatly strengthens all of these forces? It’s the electronics-digital-wireless industry.
To appreciate what I have just said, ask yourself how much the world has changed since the mid 1980’s, especially, the personal computer, the Internet, online commerce, the cell phone, and wireless communications. My thinking is that, if the share of the electronics-digital-wireless industry in the world economy is increasing, inflation will be tamed for a long time. In fact, the share of this industry is rapidly expanding around the world.
What about inflation caused by rising oil prices? The oil-induced inflation in 2008 is real. However, we have a choice if we want to exercise it. We can turn to green technology. Even if we don’t have the will, continued rising oil prices will eventually force the development of green technology. One expert has said, the solution for high oil prices is high oil prices.
What about huge government deficit spending this year? The huge government spending is made in an extraordinary circumstance to save the economy. The goal is to put the economy back on a solid foundation. When business recovers and the new green industry and technologies develop, tax money will be flowing back to the government. Remember the US government was running a big surplus during the Internet boom of the 1990’s?
As long as we stay on track to build a new solid economy based on modern and green technologies rather than on financial gimmicks such as sub-prime loans, bundled securities, and hedge funds, we should have no fear about the economic prospects.
6/2/09 Tuesday
Today, the three major indexes follow up on yesterday’s surges with some small gains (Dow +19, Nasdaq +8, S&P +2).
Some encouraging developments include the following:
Housing sales in the US continue a surprisingly strong rise for the third month in a row, although still slow compared with last year.
Auto sales in May for GM and Ford came out better than expected, although still showing double-digit declines.
It looks like GM will emerge from bankruptcy as planned. It has found a Chinese buyer for its Hummer division, and keen buyer interests in two other divisions, Saab and Saturn.
In the financial sector, the major banks want to return the bailout money they took from the government because they don’t like the restrictions placed on executive pay. One requirement is that they have to raise enough private capital as specified in the stress test. Some banks have sold some assets. The rest have raised cash by issuing more shares to be sold in the open market. The good sign is that they have succeeded in raising tens of billions within only a few weeks.
When a company issues more shares, it will have a depressing effect on its share price. However, if the long-term fundamentals are good, the price will climb back up within a few weeks.
In the case of Citigroup, although the worst may be over, its share price faces downward pressure these few days because it has been removed from the Dow Jones Index due to its low value. Since many index funds carry Citigroup in their portfolios, they have to do some selling to adjust. The removal of Citigroup from the Dow does not come as a shock because its share price varies under $4 for quite some time. If the worst is indeed over, it may turn out that this is a good buying opportunity.
6/1/09 Monday
Today marks the demise of an American icon, General Motors, whose bankruptcy has been expected for quite some time. The stock market looks past this event and focuses on other economic signals such as better manufacturing production and personal income levels. The Dow surges by 221 points, the Nasdaq by 54, and the S&P by 24.
General Motors used to be the world’s largest company until 1973 when the first oil crisis hit. From then on, it has never managed to recover, and has been losing market share to foreign cars especially Toyota and Honda.
The US government now becomes the biggest shareholder after pumping in billions for bailout and restructuring. An auto task force has been appointed to handle the bankruptcy procedures. The aim is create a new GM much leaner than before that will emerge from bankruptcy within 90 days. There is also talk that the new GM will produce the car of the future instead of the past. This must include hybrids or plug-in electrics that the US auto industry has neglected so far.
The same auto task force has been handling the bankruptcy of Chrysler, third largest US automaker. It has been reported that the procedure is moving faster than planned. The sale of Chrysler to Fiat of Italy will likely be completed within a couple of months.
This leaves Ford Motors the only surviving automaker in America. Although Ford has been losing billions of dollars lately, it has been able to raise nearly $2 billion by selling 300 millions of its own shares in the open market. Ford has also said that it does not need government bailout money. One cannot help being optimistic about its future. Two of its American competitors are gone which account for nearly 30% of the US domestic market. If Ford cannot beat the Japanese or the Germans, at least it has beaten its American rivals. Incidentally, Ford’s share price rises today by $0.38 to $6.13 in heavy trading.
5/29/2009 Friday
The market continues to zigzag until a rally in the last half hour, which pushes the Dow up 97 points, the Nasdaq 23, and the S&P 12.
I wish to draw your attention to the undercurrents of oil prices and the economy. The price of oil fell from $147 per barrel in June 08 to $32 in December. Since then it has been creeping up to $67 today.
The precipitous fall last year was due to the financial meltdown and the ensuing worldwide recession. Why does the price double in five months while the recession is going on?
Two big reasons: First, the world has no oil surplus left because the fast growing economies of China and India have eaten up the surplus. In addition, there has been no major oil reserve discovered despite the hype of opening up Alaska or some coastal regions.
This is a very precarious long-term situation, just like no surplus money in your bank account. We are living from day to day on just enough oil supply. As a consequence, anything can cause a price hike including routine maintenance shutdown, hurricane, earthquake, not to mention terrorism or war.
The second reason has to do with the state of the current recession. Are we really in the middle of the recession or are we pulling out of it? Although the signals are mixed, the doubling of oil prices represents a clear signal of economic recovery. It may be happening in the emerging countries of Asia right now. Perhaps for the first time, the US economy is not leading the way.
Some people worry that the doubling of oil prices may kill the recovery. Maybe. That depends on how the OPEC countries will react. They understand full well that high oil prices always bring a recession, and encourage consumers to find energy alternatives. In return, a recession always brings down oil prices that will cause them great pain. Therefore, they will try their best to nurture the recovery so that the rest of the world can afford to buy more oil to sustain the price level they want.
Using this reasoning, OPEC will raise production to ease the surge in price. But this is only a temporary fix. Remember I just said that we have no oil surplus and are running out of oil reserve. There is nothing to prevent oil prices from rising fast in the long term, unless we find a way to stop our addiction.
5/28/2009 Thursday
Today’s activity is marked by ups and downs but all the three major indexes wind up ahead at the close: Dow by 104 points, Nasdaq 21, and S&P 14. The main reason is a better auction of US Treasury bonds as compared with yesterday.
A piece of news has come out from AIG recently that the company plans to do a reverse split of its shares pending approval by its shareholders. For example, a 5 to 1 reverse split reduces your share holding of 100 shares to 20. But the share value will increase correspondingly from $2 to $10. As a result, the value of your total holding remains unchanged.
What is the purpose behind a reverse split? The official reason is to increase share value for the benefit of shareholders.
If you think deeper, a company can always benefit its shareholders by working harder and earn more profits, rather than resorting to the gimmick of a reverse split. Furthermore, a company can use its cash reserve to buy back some of its outstanding shares to boost its share price. This is traditionally done by Coca Cola, General Electric, IBM, Microsoft, and many others.
The problem with AIG is that last year they have incurred the biggest losses in American corporate history. They have taken the largest share of government bailout money. And they don’t have enough cash to buy back some of their outstanding shares.
A reverse split is usually done when a company is in distress. When the share price becomes higher after a reverse split, it could qualify for short selling, which would weigh down the price later.
Remember Sun Microsystems that did a 5 to 1 reverse split a few years ago when it was in distress? The price came back down to the pre-split level and Sun was eventually bought by Oracle in April 2009.
5/27/2009 Wednesday
Today’s stock market is mostly driven by fears and uncertainties:
a) A sell-off of US Treasury bonds at auction raises the fear of higher interest rates.
b) The bondholders of General Motors reject the company’s offer in restructuring negotiations. Without an agreement, GM will file for bankruptcy next week.
c) North Korea threatens to attack South Korea and the US should the US search its vessels for nuclear materials on the high seas.
As a result, the Dow drops by 173 points, almost giving back all of yesterday’s gain. On the other hand, the Nasdaq and the S&P register lesser declines of 19 and 17 points respectively.
Today’s news masks some good long-term developments:
a) Chrysler is moving faster than expected in its bankruptcy procedures for restructuring and sale to Fiat of Italy.
b) Major American banks are able to raise enough cash quickly to fulfill the requirements of the government’s stress test. For instance, Bank of America has already raised $26 billion out of the $34 billion required.
5/26/2009 Tuesday
After three days of weekend closing, the stock market finally finds a reason to break the downdraft when an unexpectedly large increase in consumer confidence was reported. The Dow is up by 196 points, the Nasdaq by 58, and the S&P 23.
Today’s surge reminds me of the previous two oscillation cycles:
First cycle lasting for 2 weeks,
Date—5/1(Fri)—5/4(Mon)———-5/15(Fri)
Dow—-8212 —-–8427————-—–8269
Second cycle lasting for 4 days,
Date—5/15(Fri)—5/18(Mon)——–5/21(Thu)
Dow—-8269—–—8504—————-8202
Current cycle to unfold,
Date—5/22(Fri)—5/26(Tue)——-
Dow—-8277——–8473————-
When you look at the dates of surge and the Dow levels, the first two cycles look similar except for the duration. If the current cycle turns out the same way, it will once again illustrate a time of short-term profit taking initiated by a one-day surge, followed by a few days of smaller declines.
This kind of oscillation may continue for a while even when better economic news are released. In that case, the oscillation will move to a higher plane.
5/22/2009 Friday
All the major indexes register small drops in light trading. The financial sector continues to decline in view of the worry about potential downgrade of US government bonds.
Another bank fails — Bank United is added to the casualty list of the financial crisis. The government announces an additional injection of $7.5 billion into GMAC, the financial company under GM whose bankruptcy is imminent.
This week is full of bad news that clouds some long-term positive developments such as: improvement in the leading economic indicators, stabilization in the housing market, and the slow recovery of major banks.
One company to watch next week is Ford Motors. Chrysler has already dropped out. GM is reported to file for bankruptcy next week. Ford is left as the only surviving American car company in the world’s largest automobile market.
Ford has said it does not need government bailout. In order to raise capital, it has managed to sell an additional 300 million of its own shares in the open market. This has caused its share price to drop by more than $1. The price seems to have stabilized at around $5.25.
What do these tell you about that company? Although Ford is still losing huge money, I think the situation will turn for the better, especially with reduced competition from its two American rivals.
5/21/2009 Thursday
The Dow falls for the third consecutive day, canceling out all the gains made on Monday. This kind of oscillating cycle is getting shorter than last time as shown below:
Date 5/1(Fr) 5/4(Mo) 5/15(Fr) 5/18(Mo) 5/21(Th)
Dow 8212 8427 8269 8504 8202
The previous up-down cycle lasts for two weeks from 5/1 to 5/15. The current cycle only lasts for three days from 5/15 to 5/21. What does that imply?
The market now tends to focus on short-term profit because the long term is still cloudy. This pattern is also true with the other indexes like Nasdaq and S&P 500.
One more bad news coming out today is the prospect that England and the US will get a lower rating for the bonds issued by the two governments. The reason is that these two governments have assumed enormous debts equivalent to about 70% of their respective GDP’s.
The rating agencies such as Moody’s and S&P are under heavy pressure to do a better job this time. Why? Before the financial meltdown last summer, they were so lax in giving out AAA ratings to many financial companies even though they were in deep trouble due to unwise lending and hedging practices. Besides the financial companies, the rating agencies should share part of the responsibility for the financial meltdown.
5/20/2009 Wednesday
The Dow goes up in the early morning hours but comes back down to about the same level half an hour before the close. Then it plunges 53 points. A similar drop also occurred yesterday. What does that mean? I would say it’s not much more than temporary profit taking. An up-down cycle has been achieved in one day.
The significant news for today is Bank of America. The bank says it plans to return $45 billion of bailout funds to the government by year’s end. In the meantime, it is selling its non-core assets totaled $35 billion. It seems that the bank is on its way to financial health.
Bank of America is the only major bank registering a gain of $0.24 in heavy trading when all the others are falling. At $11.49 today, it is relatively cheap compared to JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo, but much higher than the rock bottom of $2.5 in early March this year.
5/19/2009 Tuesday
The Dow performs a perfect seesaw for the whole day. However, during the last few minutes of trading, it suddenly drops by 29 points. This may set the tone for a lower opening early tomorrow morning.
Several major financial companies have started negotiation with the government to pay back the bailout money known as TARP. These include JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and American Express. They do not like the strings attached to the bailout money, especially the controls placed on executive pay.
These companies should have known better. There is no free lunch in the business world. They created the financial meltdown in the first place by being too aggressive in lending. The government was forced to rescue them with taxpayers’ money in order to prevent the economy from collapsing. It goes without saying that there should be strings attached to the rescue plan because this is no charity work.
The complaints from the financial companies are beside the point. The important thing is that they are capable of returning the bailout money in just a few months. This means that the financial sector is gradually being nursed back to health. With the stabilization of the financial sector, the economy is finally seeing the end of the tunnel. You can probably conclude what will happen to the stock market several months down the road.
5/18/2009 Monday
The market surges again after seesawing for a few days. The Dow rises by 235 points, the Nasdaq by 52, and the S&P by 27. Three observations are worth noting. First, the Dow puts on some 50 points during the last half hour of trading. Second, the volume of trading is light for the whole day. Third, the news is mixed like usual with good and bad, but a report about some stabilization in the housing market has triggered a surge especially in the banking sector.
The light volume means that today’s surge will most likely last for a day or two, followed by profit taking and seesawing for another few days. It may end up as a repeat of the previous seesaw cycle as described yesterday.
This is a normal phenomenon when the economy is struggling but with some good news slowly trickling out. After all, stocks have to move because some people have to initiate the cycle to start the money flowing.
5/15/2009 Friday
Since the big rally on Monday, May 4th when the Dow rose by 214 points, the market has been seesawing day in day out no matter what kind of news reported. What does that imply?
Profit taking is the major reason as the Dow has fallen back to 8269 today compared with 8212 before the big rally on May 4th. The analysts may say that the market has no direction, taking a break, or consolidating. The result is simply seesawing but gradual erosion back to the previous level.
For those players who initiated this rally and took profit quickly, they have already made a handsome return in about ten days. The same applies to those players who follow closely and play the short term.
During this time when the economy is struggling but with some glimmers of hope, the market tends to behave this way: a significant one-day surge followed by quick profit taking within several days. Then the cycle may repeat itself after a pause.
5/14/2009 Thursday
Despite record high claims for unemployment benefit due to mass layoffs, the market reverses its downward trend today.
The next thing to watch is whether today’s stabilization will hold. If it does, this temporary profit taking is over. The market will look forward to achieving higher grounds in the next week or two as discussed in my post yesterday.
Tomorrow may show a small price movement like that of today, while the market is taking a break from the ups and downs of the past week.
If the market responds enthusiastically tomorrow to some insignificant good news, that means it will want to find any excuse to continue the upward trend, to be followed by some temporary profit taking again.
5/13/2009 Wednesday
The market drops pretty much across the board following a report that retail sales in April decline unexpectedly.
In view of the mass layoffs in recent months, retail sales cannot be expected to pick up. So this is no big news. Two factors that really cause the market decline are: profit taking, and the worry that the current recession may last longer.
The financials continue their third day of decline after a run up during last week ending 5/8/09 as shown below:
Dates—————3/9/09——-5/1/09——-5/8/09——— 5/13/09
Bank of America—-$ 5———–$ 8———– $15————- $11
JP Morgan Chase–$20———- $30———–$38————-$34
Wells Fargo———$10———-$20———–$28————-$24
Citigroup————-$ 1———–$ 3———–$4.5———— $3.4
As you can see from the above data, the profit taking has not reduced the stock prices to the levels reached on 5/1/09 when the run up began. The declines may continue for a few more days, and may come down to the historical lows on 3/9/09. But I doubt it because the worst seems to be behind us.
What if the declines stop tomorrow? Then we would have a new bottom reached for today. From here, the market would try to climb to still higher levels, and repeat the same behavior of profit taking as we have seen for the past two weeks.
You may also look at the price levels for other stocks with regard to those significant days that I have specified.
5/12/2009 Tuesday
The financials continue their second day of downward movement even though the Dow turns around later in the day to put on 50 points gain. Is this seesawing happening again day in day out? It may because there is still plenty of uncertainty out there.
The declines for major banks are not big, with only average volumes of transaction. This shows profit taking after several days of run up leading to the release of the government stress test.
In fact, the stress test represents a milestone where no banks fail the test while some major ones are required to raise more capitals.
There should be no more worse news coming out except the following worries: First, if the banks raise capitals by selling more shares in the stock market, it will dilute their existing shares and cause some drops in prices. Second, another tidal wave may come regarding increasing home foreclosures due to worsening unemployment, and more defaults now coming from commercial real estate. I think these worries are justified but they will not lead to another downward spiral like that of 2008.
The other big news is about Ford Motor Company. After the bankruptcy of Chrysler, and that of General Motors likely to happen next month, the prospect for Ford suddenly appears better because it is the only American automaker left. In fact, Ford has picked up some of the market shares of GM. Furthermore, Ford does not need a government bailout. Since yesterday, it has begun selling 300 million more shares to raise capital. This is the reason why its share price drops by more than one dollar today.
5/11/2009 Monday
The Dow opens low by 100 points in early morning trading. At the close it registers 156 points drop. It almost gives back all of last Friday’s big gain. This seesawing also happens last Wednesday and Thursday. I think it shows profit taking in the short run. The trend for the Dow is clearly on the rise from the brief low of around 6600 in early March to 8419 for today.
The significant news today is health care reform in the US. The leaders of six major health care groups covering insurance, drugs, hospitals and doctors deliver a letter to President Obama pledging to reduce the growth rate of health care costs by 1.5% each year. This amounts to $2 trillion dollars of total savings within ten years. This is welcoming news in view of the current 7% health care inflation and 50 million Americans unable to pay for their health insurance. However, their good pledge still puts health care inflation rate well above the consumer price index.
Why is the health care industry willing to give up some of their big profits? First, the public is angry about the runaway health care inflation. Last fall, they voted for Obama who pledged health care reform. Second, the Obama plan calls for setting up a government health insurance plan to compete with existing private companies to lower costs. Third, increasing health care costs have eaten into the bottom line of all US companies who customarily pay for their employees’ health insurance. When business executives complain about their rising health care expenses for their employees, their voices speak louder than ordinary citizens.
The crux of the problem is the runaway health care inflation. Although health is the most basic issue in life, the government has succumbed to the financial power of the drug and insurance companies, as well as the hospitals and doctors associations. As a consequence, the health care industry has been making huge profits at the expense of ordinary citizens. More and more individuals cannot afford to pay for their health insurance.
In a nutshell, the US health care problem is profiteering by the health care industry and the failure of the government to regulate the industry and contain costs. This thing has finally come to a head now.
Today’s event will make it easier for Obama and the Congress to pass reform legislation this year. The headwind is still strong, coming from the Republican Party. This pro-business party has no problem seeing the health care industry gouging the consumers in the name of free capitalism.
Should health care reform pass into law this year, what will happen to the stock prices of drug companies and insurers? They won’t drop precipitously because the health care industry is so profitable. Besides, those companies pay high dividends. However, there may be a time when the market feels uncertain about their future profits due to tighter government control. Then it would have a dramatic depressing effect on their stock prices.
5/8/2009 Friday
All the 19 major banks pass the government’s stress test although three largest ones are required to raise additional capital to guard against further deterioration of the economy. They are: Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.
The stress test in effect instills some certainty and confidence into the financial sector. This is what the stock market wants to see. As a result, the banks lead the Dow up by 165 points.
To raise more capital, the banks have to sell some assets to trim down their size. This is a good thing because the banks were expanding too fast and were taking too much risk, which have led to the current financial crisis.
The stress test did not do anything to the toxic assets that the banks still carry such as foreclosed properties. It is wise for the government not to spend any more tax money to buy up these assets. Let the banks carry them until the economy improves. Then they can sell them at fair market prices.
The national unemployment rate for April edged up to 8.9%. Although more than half a million people lost their jobs, this monthly figure is less than those for the past five months. If this continues, we may be seeing a stabilization of the labor market.
Food for thought:
Do you think the financial sector is on the way to recovery?
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I venture to say yes.
5/7/2009 Thursday
What I feared yesterday turns out to be true. Yesterday’s late surge extends to this morning for less than an hour. Then the Dow starts to dip and ends the day with 102 points drop. Besides profit taking, another reason is the uncertainty or fear about the government’s stress test results on major banks to be published after today’s close.
5/6/07 Wednesday
The Dow almost doubled during the last twenty minutes of trading to register 101 points increase on news that the employment report due out on Friday may not be that bad. Can this surge extend to tomorrow morning? If so, it may be preparation for some profit taking.
5/5/2009 Tuesday
Some profit taking occurs today after yesterday’s surge. A report says AIG first turns a profit for the first quarter of this year. In the previous quarter, AIG incurred the biggest loss in US corporate history. The company has so far received multiple federal bailouts totaling $183 billion. If the report is true, it shows more signs that the financial sector is turning around. In addition, the Fed Chairman again says that the US economy will turn around later this year.
5/4/2009 Monday
The Government’s stress test results on major banks are pushed back three days to 5/7. However, the Wall Street Journal reports about ten major banks need to raise more capital, including Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. Despite this news, the Dow rises 214 points, led by the financial sector. Why? Not much more bad news I guess.
4/30/2009 Thursday
Chrysler announces bankruptcy filing. Dow dropped only 18 points.
3/23/2009 Monday
The Dow rises again by 497 points after the Treasury Department announces plan to buy banks’ toxic assets.
3/12/2009 Thursday
The Dow rises again by 240 points when Bank of America and JP Morgan-Chase release similar announcement as Citigroup.
3/10/2009 Tuesday
This date may be recorded as the one when the stock market began to turn around. The Dow rises by 379 points after more than two months of gloom and doom, which brought the Dow down to its twelve-year low of 6547. The rise is triggered by Citigroup’ s announcing the first profit after months of big losses. Citigroup shares rise from $1.05 to $1.45.
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