#62 Bulls & Bears, Part I — Stock Market Analysis
Bulls & Bears, Part I – Stock Trading Analysis (#62)
Bulls and bears always alternate like the swing of a pendulum. They are connected to each other. The presence of a bull creates a bear that will emerge later, and vice versa. The reason for their alternation is not hard to understand. It is all based on the profit motive, the driver of all business ventures. When the bull market reaches a high point, the stockholders want to cash out. When the bear market sinks to a bottom, those with surplus cash want to move in because of the opportunity.
Many people believe that when a company makes money, its stock price will continue to rise. That is true up to a point. You must ask when the stockholders want to sell, especially the big ones. Do they want to sell when times are best? Should they wait until times get rough when it will be too late?
When there is money to be made, people will do all kinds of things by hook or by crook. Those who have the money, power, and connections will get what they want, because this is how the world operates. Since the stock market is a zero-sum game, you’d better make sure that other people don’t profit at your expense.
The Beginning of a Bull
A bull market tends to have a longer run than a bear. Why? Anything that represents improvement takes time to build. It is not unusual for a bull to last for two to three years. The building process leading to the peak takes up most of the time. The peak seldom lasts long, usually a couple of weeks. At the peak, stocks are just waiting for an excuse to tumble because the urge to cash out is so great.
How can you tell the beginning of a bull? You have to see a crisis and a bottom first. Don’t guess or follow an expert’s opinion. You must see it to believe it. A crisis is brewing when the stock price begins a quiet gradual descend for some time. Then one or more precipitous drops follow when the bad news become official. Depending on the severity of the crisis, there may be a panic sell that drives the price down to an unbelievably low level. That may mean either a bottom or a bankruptcy. A bottom is confirmed when the price rebounds to a significantly higher level and is able to stay there for some time. A bankruptcy will reduce the price to a penny stock, where it will stay until it is eventually taken away from the trading floor.
The best illustration is the financial meltdown that occurred in September 08. The bank stocks started a gradual decline since the autumn of 2007 even in the absence of bad news. By September 08 when the crisis became official, precipitous drops occurred across the banking sector. This also dragged down all the stocks in other sectors of the economy except a few high flyers. By the end of February 09, we saw incredibly low prices for nearly all stocks. Many weaker companies have already died. Then came early March 09 when the tide turned. One month later, we saw the bottoms as many stocks were recovering. Although there have been frequent ups and downs, most stocks continue to dance their way up as the bull market gradually spreads from the banks to other sectors of the economy.
Sustaining the Bull
Many people think that a bull just happens due to better profit conditions for companies. That is true to a certain extent. Better profits provide a good environment and an excuse for the bull to run. However, the bull cannot continue without the injection of cash. In order for the price to go up, more buyers should be chasing after the stock while some existing shareholders are selling due to higher prices.
What attracts the cash? The picture is far from complete if you assume that the only reason is better profits. We know that the profit situation cannot stay rosy for long because of the business cycle, constant competition, and the development of disruptive technologies. It all boils down to how much potential profits can be made as judged by existing shareholders in view of current business conditions.
It follows then the lower the previous bottom, the bigger the potential for profit because the initial cost for acquiring the stock is lower. It also follows that the lower the previous bottom, the longer will be the bull run.
Benefiting from the Bull
To maximize profits from a bull market, you have to do the following:
• Ensure that you move in at the beginning of the bull after seeing a crisis and a bottom.
• Cash out when profit conditions still look rosy.
• In the middle of a bull run, stocks dance up and down frequently. Try to sell on the high and buy back on the low as temporary measures to earn more short-term cash.
• Don’t buy when everybody says the stock market is good. That is the time when the market reaches its peak.
www.stockfessor.com
November 2009
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