#63 Bulls & Bears, Part II — Stock Trading Strategy
Bulls & Bears, Part II – Stock Trading Strategy (#63)
Bulls and bears usually refer to the overall market conditions as shown by the movements of major indexes. Before you buy an individual stock, you have to know its unique pattern of bulls and bears. Without this perspective, it will be difficult to win. The point is, your stocks move up and down at different times, do you know the best time to get in and cash out?
The following is an illustration across different industries:
Consumer Staple Sector
Well-established companies in this sector are the least volatile. This is due to stable consumer demands, strong brand names, and good dividends. Their highs and lows have longer cycles, too. Note that this sector is least affected by the current deep recession beginning last fall.
Coca Cola (KO)
Month——Sep.06——-Sep.07——–Feb.09———-Nov.09
Price ($)——37————66————-37—————58
WalMart (WMT)
Month——Jul.07——-Aug.08——–Feb.09———-Nov.09
Price ($)——42————64————-48—————55
Banking Sector
The banking sector is normally steady business for the same reason as the consumer staple sector. However, due to their financial meltdown last fall, some major banks have experienced near-death. The bear has taken over and is reluctant to leave.
Bank of America (BAC)
Month——-Jul.05——-Aug.06——–Feb.09———-Nov.09
Price ($)——40————64—————3—————-16
Citigroup (C)
Month——–May05——–May07——–Feb.09———Nov.09
Price ($)———48————-57————-1—————-4
Drugs Sector
The big drug companies are stable because they have plenty of cash and pay high dividends in addition to stable consumer demands. However, they are also affected by the current deep recession, and the uncertainties over health care reforms in the US.
Pfizer (PFE)
Month——–Jun.06——-Mar.09——–Nov.09
Price ($)——–29————12————–18
Merck (MRK)
Month——–Jul.05——-Sep.07——–Feb.09———Nov.09
Price ($)——–25————62————-20————–36
High-Tech Sector
Volatility is name of game for high tech stocks. This is due to intense competition and short product cycles.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
Month———Jan.05——-Jan.06——–Jan.07——–Feb.09——-Nov.09
Price ($)——–20————–43————-23————-2————-7
Dell Inc. (DELL)
Month——–Jan.05——-Aug.07——–Feb.09———Nov.09
Price ($)——–42————27————–8—————14
Conclusion
Bulls and bears occur for each individual stock with a unique pattern. You need to have a feel about the behaviors of your particular stocks. Knowing more about the companies and their products helps but is of secondary importance. The most valuable thing is insider information. As a small player, you will never be able to access any. What to do then? You just have to find out the unique up-down pattern of your stocks, apply some critical thinking, dance closely with them, and pick up some gains as often as possible.
www.stockfessor.com
November 2009
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